While the immediate imposition of broad-reaching tariffs has been postponed, the Canada-US trade war is far from over.
Trump stated that the pause is meant to ‘see whether or not a final economic deal with Canada can be structured [that is fair].’ So while Canada’s concessions on border security spending appear to satisfy some of Trump’s demands, he continues to signal that more must be done. Moreover, what constitutes ‘fairness’ seems to remain unclear to all but Trump himself.
Canadian trade policy falls under federal jurisdiction, so constitutionally, Premier Ford has limited options for directly retaliating against Trump’s threats.
However, as Ontario’s leader, Ford governs the province with the most at stake in a trade war. Alcohol taxation is federally controlled, but its sale and distribution are provincial matters – making an LCBO boycott an easy target. Ford’s other big push was to terminate Ontario’s nearly $100m contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink, but that is now also on hold.
From an economic standpoint, Ford’s proposed boycott was more symbolic than impactful. According to VIVI Economics, even with Manitoba and Nova Scotia joining in, these three provinces consumed 2.5 million cases of US wine in 2024, equivalent to just 1.1% of US production. While some smaller vineyards reliant on Canadian sales would feel the pinch, the overall US wine sector could weather the loss.
Furthermore, wine accounts for just 0.1% of all US exports to Canada – hardly a critical bargaining chip.
From a political perspective, Ford’s aggressive stance aligns with his election strategy. Taking a hard line against Trump bolsters his image as a defender of Canadian interests. For many Canadians, boycotting US alcohol serves as a symbolic rejection of Trump’s economic tactics.
Ford will likely reinstate the LCBO boycott if tariffs return – not just as retaliation but as a political signal of defiance.
Canadian consumers might notice the absence of US wines, but they would adjust. While five of the six top-selling wines in Canada are American, most US wines fall into the ‘above-average’ category – widely enjoyed but not irreplaceable. They currently occupy 12% of LCBO shelf space, a notable share but far from dominant. Meanwhile, alternative suppliers from France, Spain, Greece, Chile, Argentina, South Africa and Australia are well-positioned to fill the gap, having already scaled back vineyard acreage to better align supply with demand.
Beyond the immediate standoff, this dispute has intensified Canada’s growing ‘buy local’ movement. The Ontario government has seized on the moment, urging consumers to choose domestic wines and spirits over US imports. This shift aligns with broader trends in economic nationalism, which have gained traction across Canada. The US share of the Canadian wine market has already been shrinking over the past eight years – this conflict only accelerates that decline.
So, while the crisis may be paused, US winemakers remain in the crossfire with no clear resolution in sight.
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The post Ontario’s boycott on US wine: A crisis paused but not averted appeared first on Decanter.
Source : https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/opinion/ontarios-boycott-on-us-wine-a-crisis-paused-but-not-averted-549832/
